German Mathematician Predicts The 2026 World Cup Winner

As the two teams seem to be evenly matched ahead of this round 32 clash, our prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands produced a series of convincing displays in Group F, defeating both Sweden and Tunisia while sharing the spoils with Japan… MetLife Stadium will be the centre of attention when France and Sweden lock horns in an exciting last-32 encounter.

With 48 teams in 12 groups of 4, and a new Round of 32 stage, the path to the final is longer than ever. Eight knockout rounds for the eventual winners, compared to seven previously. This favours nations with squad depth and the ability to rotate. Don’t be surprised if at least one traditional power exits before the quarter-finals.

A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks. Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award. France are seen as having the most difficult group of the leading teams, as they face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I. That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.

How Often is the FIFA World Cup Played?

Ancelotti was only in charge for the final five games of their campaign, but less than eight months into his reign, he has already overseen surprise defeats to Bolivia and Japan, as well as poor draws with Ecuador and Tunisia. Germany arguably played some of the best football at Euro 2024, ranking second for average possession (62.5%) and goals scored (11), but Nagelsmann has plenty of selection dilemmas to consider. Messi has shown no signs of slowing down, helping Inter Miami reach the Major League Soccer Cup final while contributing a staggering 35 goals and providing 21 assists in MLS action this year. There should be plenty of service for Harry Kane, who is Europe’s most in-form striker, netting 24 goals in 20 matches for Bayern Munich since the start of the season in August. But there is a competitive race for the positions behind the England skipper after Tuchel suggested Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden could not both start, while Cole Palmer’s season has barely got going due to injuries.

With the Round of 32 underway and this 48-team field wide open, we will update these picks after every round. Our World Cup 2026 predictions land on France beating Argentina 2-1 in the July 19 final at New York New Jersey Stadium, a rematch of 2022. France and Argentina are the most likely finalists, sitting on opposite halves of the bracket. Spain and Brazil are the strongest challengers, though Spain would have to get past Argentina in the semifinals to reach the final on July 19. France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway.

• Their route to this World Cup was not completely smooth, either, as they were left needing victory over Slovakia in their final Group A game to avoid the play-offs.
• That is where Tuchel excels and it could prove to be the difference maker for the Three Lions.
• France can power clear as Argentina’s exertions against Portugal and Brazil catch up with them, and Messi runs out of fairy-tales.
• But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up.
• But there is a competitive race for the positions behind the England skipper after Tuchel suggested Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden could not both start, while Cole Palmer’s season has barely got going due to injuries.
• A true David vs Goliath clash awaits as already-eliminated Jordan take on tournament favourites Argentina in their final Group J fixture, with 0-3 our predicted outcome.
• Despite sitting a point behind Ghana in Group L, Croatia are clear favourites to claim victory, according to the Opta supercomputer.
• Below you’ll find our expert tips for the World Cup across the most popular football betting markets, including Match Result, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Total Goals, and Correct Score.
• He’s also been red-hot in 2026, posting an 18-8 record over his last 26 UCL picks, returning nearly $1,000 in profit.
• South Korea and Czechia appear to be the likeliest candidates to challenge El Tri for the throne, but the 10-time Gold Cup winners should live up to their billing.
• The placement of each team will affect whom they face in the knockout round.
• Germany are given a 54.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, while Paraguay’s chances stand at 23.1 percent.
• France vs Morocco – Another semi-final appearance is likely to elude Morocco, with Les Bleus expected to prevail on sheer firepower.

Colombia vs Portugal Prediction

• All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final.
• Jesse Marsch has a 42.7% chance of leading his team to the last 16, which would represent a magnificent performance.
• While Jordan are playing only for pride, Argentina will be looking to maintain their perfect record and head into the knockout stages with maximum confidence.
• The field has been supersized from 32 to 48 teams and the competition will begin in earnest on June 11 with Mexico hosting South Africa at Mexico City’s famed Estadio Azteca.
• They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16.
• But the prospect of two icons duelling to end the tournament in the lead should be absorbing viewing.
• All eyes, though, will be on teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who joins Ronaldo and Messi as one of the most searched players in the world.
• Brazil has elite talent, though their depth remains a concern following long-term injuries to Estevao and Rodrygo months before the tournament starts.
• England and Panama have met only once before at the World Cup, with England cruising to a 6-1 victory in the group stage at Russia 2018.
• Lionel Scaloni’s side posted three wins from three in group play, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0 and Jordan 3-1, and Messi has been in remarkable form at 39 years old, driving his side through the group phase with six goals.
• England secured top spot in Group L with victories over Panama and Croatia, while sharing the spoils with Ghana.
• Jordan’s Moussa Al Tamari is a player to watch and capable of driving a surprise run.

The model adjusts its odds after each game, playing out the rest of the tournament 100,000 times while giving teams credit (or blame) for their performance so far. We don’t want to overpromise, and we have a small team, so expect one update per day, but you will often see intraday updates after important matches. By popular request, we’ve changed the projected match results table to reflect the score after 90 minutes — not including extra time. However, the model does simulate extra time and penalties, which generally favor the stronger side, in projecting which team advances.

The Inevitability of Erling Haaland

From the oldest coach in World Cup history to Lionel Messi’s and Kylian Mbappé’s chase for the all-time World Cup scoring record, history will likely be made this summer. Tactics and managerial decision-making can be the difference between winning and losing a World Cup game, and there are plenty of skippers in the tournament that have had success coaching around the globe. While the field is a bit more watered-down than in previous iterations of the tournament, it’ll still be a challenge for most teams looking to advance to the Round of 32. The Yahoo Sports soccer team has its picks for Golden Ball, Golden Boot, Golden Glove, biggest disappointments and more right here. The World Cup draw took place on Dec. 5 and the 48 teams were slotted into 12 groups of four. The teams were given a final roster deadline of June 1, so we already know who will be representing each country (click on the teams below to see each roster).

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At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win. Mbappé is closing in on Olivier Giroud’s mark of 57 goals for France, having netted 55 times in his 93 caps. And there has been no downturn from De la Fuente’s side since. These teams met in the last 16 in Qatar and Argentina had to endure some nervy moments.

France: 14.1%

The recent form and questions on formation under Mauricio Pochettino for the U.S. raises concern, while Turkiye’s balance and presence of Hakan Calhanoglu give them the slight edge to win the group. Australia and Paraguay are organized enough to earn draws but remain long shots to advance ahead of the two favorites. Bosnia enter confidently after knocking out Italy and looks talented enough to win this group as long as Edin Dzeko can stay on the pitch at 40 years old. The Bosnian legend didn’t miss a minute in the playoffs against Wales and Italy despite injuring his shoulder. Switzerland’s experience and defensive structure should see them through comfortably, as well.

With Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez capable of picking passes from deep, the spaces behind Cape Verde’s defensive line are likely to be tested repeatedly and at pace from the first whistle. Argentina head into this tie with a fully fit and settled squad. Emiliano Martinez is the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper, with the back four expected to feature Nahuel Molina and Nicolas Tagliafico as full-backs alongside Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero in central defence. The midfield trio of Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernandez has functioned well throughout the group stage, and Scaloni has few, if any, selection headaches at this stage of the tournament. Five wins from five across all competitions, with ten goals scored and just one conceded in that run.

Germany vs. France

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Then, in Germany, Ronaldo broke down in tears after seeing a penalty saved in Portugal’s last-16 tie against Slovenia, which they eventually won on spot-kicks. But a rampant 5-0 victory in Serbia in September showcased the Three Lions’ potential, and the emergence of Elliot Anderson seems to have finally ended their search for a central midfield partner for Declan Rice. His England reign took some time to get going, as England laboured past Albania (3-0), Latvia (2-0), Andorra (1-0 and 2-0) and were beaten 3-1 by Senegal in a June friendly.

What are the predictions for Panama vs England?

With Messi drawing defensive attention and Julian Alvarez providing the running, Martinez is regularly afforded space inside the area and is one of the most reliable penalty-box finishers in this Argentina squad. He is worth including in any anytime scorer selections at the best available price. The World Cup 2026 knockout stage ruthlessly separates those who have managed a passage through a group from those who can compete at the elite level over 90 minutes.

Germany are overdue a strong result, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance of achieving that, as they were finalists in 10.6% of sims. It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994. Portugal go into the World Cup with momentum after winning the Nations League under Roberto Martínez. Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his trophy cabinet.

• The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final.
• The Netherlands have been in free-scoring form so far, plundering 10 in Group F. Ronald Koeman’s men are yet to keep a clean sheet, though, and Morocco’s vibrant attack will play fearlessly as they have all tournament.
• Expectations are sky-high in Mauricio Pochettino’s corner, yet the United States’ recent World Cup performances cannot inspire confidence, even though they’ve reached the knockouts in three of the last four tournaments.
• Six host nations have won the World Cup, most recently France in 1998.
• They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16.
• The disappointing campaign prompted President Lee to order a full review of the national team programme, describing the result as “deeply bewildering” and questioning both the team’s structure and Hong’s appointment.
• And while the U.S. doesn’t have a star the caliber of those players, Christian Pulisic stands out as a player to watch on the team.
• Colombia were not even at the last World Cup but are a team to watch out for this time.
• We asked the supercomputer to simulate the 2026 World Cup 25,000 times, and it has produced some fascinating conclusions in its official pre-tournament predictions.
• The final will be played at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.

Building a perfect bracket may be unrealistic, but identifying where chaos is most likely, and where elite teams will hold firm, is the key to getting ahead. Below, you’ll find a full round-by-round projection, blending safe picks with calculated risks to map out how the 2026 World Cup could unfold. England vs Portugal – Ronaldo may have to take comfort from beating his arch-nemesis in the quarter-finals. Turkey vs Best 3rd place Group B/E/F/I/J – Despite their lengthy absence from football’s biggest stage, the Crescent-Stars might return with a bang. Expectations are sky-high in Mauricio Pochettino’s corner, yet the United States’ recent World Cup performances cannot inspire confidence, even though they’ve reached the knockouts in three of the last four tournaments. Before bowing out in the group stages four years ago in Qatar, Mexico had reached the knockout phase at seven consecutive World Cups.

Pick Your World Cup 2026 Winner

They conceded just eight goals across their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, shutting out both Brazil and Argentina along the way. Pink boots have also become one of the biggest trends at the tournament. There are quite often, and unfortunately, major injuries that rule out certain players from the World Cup Finals, much to the devastation of the players themselves and their nations. This can impact a team’s chances heavily, especially if it is a top goalscorer or stalwart defender that is essential to the way the nation plays. There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years. In our pick ’em for the World Cup, users select who they think will win each of the 12 groups ahead of the tournament’s first game on Thursday.

Morocco, Senegal, Ghana, and Ivory Coast are all set to feature in the tournament and could find a way to cause major upsets and book a spot in the latter rounds. It’s one thing having World Cup predictions at your disposal, but it’s important to use them correctly and alongside your own research. I would feel more confident in the U.S. going through to the semifinals in that scenario than us against someone like Spain. From animals to colors to local cultural symbols, every team (except one) has a special moniker that’s specific to their nation. Here are the nicknames for every team that will be playing in the World Cup this month. At age 40, Croatia’s Luka Modrić will be back for a fifth World Cup, assuming he recovers from cheekbone surgery in time.

Ronald Koeman’s side won 47.6 percent of the 25,000 2026 world cup schedule pre-match simulations, while Morocco progressed in 25.0 percent. The remaining 27.4 percent of simulations were level after 90 minutes, sending the match to extra time and, if necessary, penalties. The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage continues on Monday with three more round of 32 ties, as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands bid to join Canada in the last 16 of the tournament. Norway, however, possesses one of the most dangerous forward lines left in the competition.

FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions: Full group stage & knockout bracket breakdown

When the smart-money crowd converges on a Top 4, history suggests a team NOT in that group wins the tournament about 25% of the time. Watch Portugal, Germany, and Netherlands as potential disruptors. Top 5 (Argentina, Spain, France, England, Brazil) most likely to reach this stage. Historical data suggests 5 of 8 QF teams will be from Europe + South America. Most matches should follow ranking expectations, but expect 2–4 upsets given third-placed teams are typically mid-tier (ranked 40–80 globally).

Group A is a difficult group, with three teams capable of advancing. Czechia holds a narrow edge thanks to their combination of veterans like Tomas Soucek and Patrik Schick, as well as somewhat newcomers in Ladislav Krejci and Pavel Sulc. Mexico’s consistency makes them a reliable choice, as well as playing at home, while South Korea’s speed can be dangerous on the counterattack. South Africa faces the steepest challenge in this group and seems unlikely to get past their first three games.

Morocco

• Victory would see Algeria win back-to-back World Cup matches for the first time.
• It was Spain’s victory over England in the Euro 2024 final that heralded the end of Gareth Southgate’s time leading the Three Lions, ushering in Thomas Tuchel’s reign.
• While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order.
• Germany arguably played some of the best football at Euro 2024, ranking second for average possession (62.5%) and goals scored (11), but Nagelsmann has plenty of selection dilemmas to consider.
• But if France make the quarter-finals (they did so in 47.9% of sims), they then start to fare increasingly better in our projections.
• France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway.
• The United States will begin play on June 12 and is a World Cup 2026 co-host alongside Canada and Mexico, but it’s European nations who top the latest soccer odds to win the tournament, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Indeed, because Paraguay beat Germany on penalties yesterday, France will now face them in the R16.
• The 2026 World Cup will be the first with 48 teams in the field, meaning that 48 different nations will be bringing their traditions and culture to the tournament.
• With so much on the line in each and every game with players playing for pride and their nation, it means there are various different betting angles to target.

Behind the top three, a cluster of European nations all carry realistic hopes. England’s golden generation finally has tournament experience after consecutive deep runs. Spain’s young core, led by Lamine Yamal and Pedri, looked devastating en route to Euro 2024. Germany are rebuilding under fresh management and remain ever-dangerous. Portugal will likely have one last dance with a slightly older Cristiano Ronaldo. The Netherlands have the kind of balanced squad that often outperforms its pre-tournament odds.

What are the predictions for Jordan vs Argentina?

After watching his team fall agonisingly short on penalties against Argentina in Qatar, he has another chance to become only the second coach to win multiple World Cups (after Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938). Deschamps’ reign has comprised 175 games, so if they reach the first knockout round, he will have overseen 100 games more than France’s next-longest serving boss (Raymond Domenech, 79). Yamal created the most chances at the tournament, with 19, while only teammate Nico Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0. Six of the teams appearing at the tournament are still to be decided, with four qualifying via the UEFA play-offs and another two via the inter-confederation playoffs.

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But time and again, they flatter to deceive on this stage, and the sight of them hanging on against Iran should give Australia plenty of encouragement. A battle of the veterans as Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both into their fifth decade, face off for the last time on the big stage. Mexico at the Azteca, backed by a raucous home crowd, has become appointment viewing at this World Cup.

Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. The resurgence of James Rodríguez made headlines at that competition, as he led the way for chances created (20) and assists (six) – that latter tally equalled the record for a single edition, alongside Brazil’s Alex in 2003. But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space. Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition.

Ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw on Friday 5 December, the Opta supercomputer has produced its early predictions for this summer’s tournament in North America. He previously worked as fan brands editor for Manchester City at Reach Plc. Prior to that, he built more than a decade of experience in the sports journalism industry, primarily for the Stats Perform and Press Association news agencies.

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• FIFA Annex C determines R32 pairings based on which groups the third-placed teams come from.
• Germany failed to impress in their final group match, but with qualification already secured, the result had little significance.
• Against a hungry and well‑organized Netherlands side, Brazil appear vulnerable, with this matchup favoring the Dutch.
• I’m taking Czechia and Mexico to advance, with South Korea finishing as one of the best third‑place teams behind Son Heung-Min.
• A point would be enough for Colombia to secure the top spot in Group K.
• France have reached the final in four of the last seven editions – twice as often as any other nation during that period – and it would be a surprise if they were not there or thereabouts once again.
• However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any intriguing games in the group stage.
• Panama are given just an 8.9 percent chance of recording their first-ever World Cup victory, while the probability of them earning a maiden World Cup point stands at 12.6 percent.
• Then, in Germany, Ronaldo broke down in tears after seeing a penalty saved in Portugal’s last-16 tie against Slovenia, which they eventually won on spot-kicks.

• As the tournament draws ever closer, getting stuck into the Opta supercomputer’s projections is the perfect way to whet your appetite while brushing up on some stimulating statistics.
• Before the biggest FIFA tournament ever kicks off, some predictions are in order.
• 8 third-placed teams join the 24 automatic qualifiers (1st + 2nd from each of 12 groups), making the R32 path unprecedented.
• France opened with a 3-1 win over Senegal and a 3-0 win over Iraq, then sealed Group I with a 4-1 win over Norway featuring an Ousmane Dembele hat-trick.
• Established in the UK — serving a global audience across Africa, Asia, and beyond.
• The top spot could come down to goal difference, with both teams likely taking advantage of Cape Verde.
• For the complete match-by-match schedule with dates, times, and venues, see our full World Cup 2026 fixtures guide.
• The most comprehensive World Cup 2026 predictions resource available.
• Tunisia’s unenviable record of failing to advance from the group stage in each of their six previous World Cup campaigns suggests they could struggle to keep pace with the rest of the pack.
• With history on the line, I see France growing complacent, allowing Portugal to seize the moment with a historic 1–0 victory, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career with ultimate glory.

This change significantly alters both the group stage and the knockout bracket. On this page you can view World Cup 2026 analysis and predictions. Statistical data, team form, and recent match history are taken into account, and predictions are automatically generated by AI with an accuracy of over 71.9%. When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final. Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s last chance to lead Portugal to World Cup glory should begin with a relatively straightforward group-stage campaign, even though Colombia possess the quality to make life uncomfortable for the Iberians. However, history is unlikely to repeat itself this time around, at least for the back-to-back World Cup finalists. Tunisia’s unenviable record of failing to advance from the group stage in each of their six previous World Cup campaigns suggests they could struggle to keep pace with the rest of the pack. Football’s biggest stage returns this summer as a stacked line-up of global contenders collide in pursuit of 2026 FIFA World Cup glory. Sweden (in 1958) and Czechia (in 1934 and 1962) have both been World Cup finalists previously (the latter as Czechoslovakia) but could still miss the tournament, as could former European champions Denmark. Appearing at their first World Cup since 1998, the Tartan Army are given a 0.2% chance of lifting the trophy, level with the likes of South Africa, Australia, Iran and Tunisia.

On 5 December, allowing fans of all nations to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium. The last time that happened, between Argentina and West Germany in 1990, the European nation gained its revenge. France can power clear as Argentina’s exertions against Portugal and Brazil catch up with them, and Messi runs out of fairy-tales. Senegal looked sharp in their final win over Iraq but didn’t impress much against Norway ro France. The Netherlands have been in free-scoring form so far, plundering 10 in Group F. Ronald Koeman’s men are yet to keep a clean sheet, though, and Morocco’s vibrant attack will play fearlessly as they have all tournament.

Argentina vs United States – The US crashed out at this juncture in the last tournament staged on their soil, and history looks set to repeat itself against the reigning champions. Brazil vs Senegal – There’s little doubt that Senegal possess the quality and confidence to push this tie into extra time. However, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the Selecao from edging through to the next round. Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances. Ivory Coast vs Senegal – Senegal’s impressive results in recent tournaments point towards an emphatic victory in this all-African knockout tie.

• All 72 group stage matches covered with win probability data, banker tips, accumulator strategy, and African kick-off times.
• These teams met in the last 16 in Qatar and Argentina had to endure some nervy moments.
• But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States.
• Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages.
• Argentina are in clinical form and showing no signs of complacency heading into the knockout rounds.
• As both sides are likely to adopt a cautious approach, our prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw.
• The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed sides advance to the brand-new Round of 32.
• Ivory Coast secured their place in the knockout stages with a convincing 2-0 victory over Curacao, where Nicolas Pepe stole the headlines with a brilliant brace.
• But a rampant 5-0 victory in Serbia in September showcased the Three Lions’ potential, and the emergence of Elliot Anderson seems to have finally ended their search for a central midfield partner for Declan Rice.
• Portugal are slight favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.6 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations.
• Build a bracket, make your picks, or just check today’s scores.
• Spain vs England – A repeat of the 2024 Euro final may produce the same heartbreaking outcome for the 1966 World Cup winners.
• Gustavo Alfaro’s team will enter this match off the back of a goalless draw with Australia, while their one success this summer was a 1-0 victory over Turkey.
• France are seen as having the most difficult group of the leading teams, as they face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I.
• La Roja have a greater than one-in-three chance (39.0%) of reaching the semis and made the final 25.6% of the time.

With history on the line, I see France growing complacent, allowing Portugal to seize the moment with a historic 1–0 victory, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career with ultimate glory. England’s talent makes them a serious contender, but I’m backing Croatia to finish first based on their recent World Cup success under Luka Modric. England’s game control and defense will be hard to beat, but scoring on bigger stages has always been iffy. Then again, Harry Kane scored freely across Bundesliga and Champions League this season, at times playing in a deeper role than usual.

He just scores goals – 61 of them to be precise this season – and this summer he looks to be heading into the tournament in peak physical condition. He finally has that winning feeling at Bayern and maybe, just maybe, he’s ready to fire England to glory too. The Opta supercomputer gave the reigning world champions a 77.9 percent chance of victory across 25,000 pre-match simulations. The draw was rated at 13.3 percent, leaving Jordan – who have already been eliminated from the 2026 tournament – with just an 8.8 percent chance of pulling off a famous upset and claiming their first-ever World Cup win. England are overwhelming favourites to claim all three points in New Jersey. According to the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations, the team has a 78.5 percent chance of winning.

World Championship 2026 facts (last 90 games)

In a five-week knockout competition there is massive variance. Just one shock exit from a tournament favourite can cause other dominos to fall and the draw can suddenly open up for an unexpected team to challenge. Croatia rank just above co-hosts USA and place 15th overall in terms of potential winners with a 1.6% chance. The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments.

Elo ratings + XGBoost trained on 50,000+ international matches. The 2026 World Cup will be the broadest, most competitive, and most logistically complex tournament ever staged. Picking a winner is harder than it has ever been, and that’s precisely what makes the build-up so compelling. Whatever your predictions, the only certainty is that we’ll all be surprised by something. Spain is backed to make light work of Austria, as is England in its meeting with DR Congo.

He’s guided Les Bleus to two consecutive finals in FIFA’s quadrennial tournament, winning it all in 2018 and coming up heartbreakingly short four years ago in a penalty-shootout loss to Argentina. Mexico failed to reach the knockout stage at the 2022 World Cup, having previously seen a Round of 16 exit every tournament from 1994 to 2018. History is not on their side in this matchup, as Switzerland arrive with a full-strength side built on midfield physicality and an elite attacking presence in Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder. Mexico will need an all‑around effort to advance under the new knockout format, relying on far more than home support to reach the next round. This group appears straightforward, with Brazil and Morocco standing out as the strongest sides.

Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s World Cup Best Bets Today — Match Day 19

Ronald Koeman’s team have scored 10 times at the 2026 World Cup and have emerged as a side to watch when it comes to a potential challenge for the trophy. Gillette Stadium will play host to a fascinating last-32 contest at the 2026 World Cup on Monday, as Netherlands and Morocco lock horns in the competition. While our percentages have not proven overly kind to them, we should be clear that just reaching the tournament is a spectacular accomplishment. Elsewhere, the presence of departing Liverpool great Mohamed Salah means Egypt (0.4%) are among the biggest threats from the bottom half of our projections.

Cricket and boxing are his other major sporting passions and he has covered the likes of Anthony Joshua, Tyson Fury, Wladimir Klitschko, Gennadiy Golovkin and Vasyl Lomachenko live from ringside. Two teams who might not have expected to finish top of their groups. Colombia have not conceded in their past two matches and had the better of their goalless draw against Portugal.

Lewandowski scored his tally in 10 games, two more than Haaland. Canada are deemed the least likely of the host nations to go all the way, winning the tournament in just 0.4% of our simulations, though they are only a year removed from a historic tournament run. Their route to this World Cup was not completely smooth, either, as they were left needing victory over Slovakia in their final Group A game to avoid the play-offs. But they won that match by a statement 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané among the goals.

They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16. But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal. Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims.